The 2023 MLB season has made it through the final turn and has the finish line in sight. Just 10 days remain in the regular season before 14 teams move onto the postseason, and only four teams have locked their spot.
The final 10 days will be full of fireworks as we wait to see which contending 13 teams will be bottlenecked into the playoff bracket.
Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Los Angeles have been far and away better than the rest of the league. These four teams have been playing a superior brand of baseball since the season began over six months ago and are the only teams to have a guaranteed playoff spot.
The American League Wild Card race is all AL West all the time. Baltimore currently has a 1.5-game lead over Tampa in the AL East, but both teams have a guaranteed spot once the season ends. The AL East has a sneaky third playoff team. The Toronto Blue Jays have quietly held the second Wild Card spot all season but only stand on a 0.5-game step higher than the majority of the AL West.
The West has been the tightest division in baseball all season. Seattle, Houston, and Texas have been fighting for the lead all season. Through 158 games, the Astros hold a measly 0.5-game lead in the division with an 85-68 record. The Mariners and the Rangers are on the same level. They only trail because they have played one less game. They share an 84-68 record, but one would miss out on the playoffs if the season ended today.
With the dissolution of ‘Game 163,’ the Wild Card could come down to the tiebreakers. Trying to break down the tiebreakers on MLB.com is one of the most challenging and infuriating things I have ever attempted. After hours of research, I am still confused. The following is a direct quote from MLB.com.
“Since there’s no longer any Game 163 tiebreaker games, any ties for playoff spots will be decided by mathematical tiebreakers. The first is head-to-head record; the second is intradivision record; it gets deep after that…”
The Rangers hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners, but the Mariners have the tiebreaker over the Blue Jays, and Houston holds the tiebreaker over all three. It is a huge mess that would be quietly cleaned up by Game 163.
The Mariners have the most control over the outcome of their season. Their last 10 games are all against their division rivals. They travel to Arlington, Texas, to play the Rangers before closing the season at home. Their final homestand is a three-game set against the Astros, and then they host the Rangers for the season’s last four games. The Rangers have destroyed the Mariners all season, beating them eight times in the 10 times they have played. But with seven games left, the Mariners have a chance to rewrite the story.
The lackluster AL Central boasts four teams under .500, but the playoff picture requires one team from every division. The Minnesota Twins have been easily the best team in the Central. The 80-win Twins will pick up their ninth divisional crown since the turn of the century as they look to make it out of the divisional round for the first time since 2002. They have ridden on the backs of their pitching all season. The Twins quietly have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They are second in the league in K/9 (9.47,) third in FIP (4.04,) and fourth in WAR (18.5.)
The National League is much messier and involves four teams that won’t make the playoffs. The Braves and the Dodgers have both clinched their divisions. It was the Dodgers 10th division title since 2013, while the Braves have taken home the pennant seven times. The Brewers are two games away from locking up the Central for the third time in the past 10 years.
The Phillies have consistently sat in the top Wild Card position with a 3-4.5 game lead for much of the season. With one of the league’s most explosive offenses, the 2022 World Series losers will seek redemption in October.
The Brewers play a very muted brand of baseball. They compete in lots of one-run games, winning most of them. They have the third-best record in baseball during one-score games (27-17). Milwaukee has the third-best record of the second half and the second-best record in September. This has helped propel them past the second-place Cubs. The Brewers, who just scored 12 runs in one inning as I’m writing this, are firing on all cylinders at the perfect time.
The Cubs, who were nipping at the heels of the Brewers in the Central just three weeks ago, are falling apart at the worst time. Chicago, who has the eighth-best record since the All-Star break, has the eighth WORST record in September. They still hold the final Wild Card spot but have yet to play like they understand the importance of these final games. They have had a series against the Reds, the Giants, and two against the Diamondbacks. All of which are competing for the final Wild Card spot. During those series, they went 7-10, getting swept both times by the Diamondbacks. The Cubs are in a terrible position due to the tiebreakers.
Arizona holds the second Wild Card spot with a 1.5-game lead over the Cubs. They look to lock up their first playoff birth since 2017 and just their fourth since winning the World Series in 2001.
The list of onlookers into the NL Wild Card is not short. The Marlins and Reds are both within one game of the last playoff spot, and the Giants are still hanging around, though their recent skid may have been the final nail in the coffin.
The second oldest roster in the league, the Miami Marlins, and the second youngest roster, the Cincinnati Reds, are two unexpected contenders from the NL this year. Both teams are ecstatic with the tiebreakers. The Marlins own the tiebreaker, with the Reds 4.5 games behind. They both lead the Cubs, along with the Phillies and Diamondbacks. Any team that finishes tied with the Cubs will get the playoff spot.
The San Diego Padres, who had been practically written off since August, are the hottest team in baseball and could make for some end-of-season fun. They have won their past seven games, pulling within 4.5 games of the Cubs. They have the best record in September and a path to the playoffs. It is a dark and scary path with minimal odds of survival, but it is a path indeed. With a 9-0 record over their final games, the Padres will have a 38.6% chance of proving the entire baseball world wrong. It is a long shot for the star-studded roster as their playoff chances diminish exponentially with every loss. An 8-1 record will bring their chances down to 15.8%, and three losses lower their chances below one.
Just 10 days remain in the regular season, and there is still so much to be decided. This final week and a half will result in a photo finish, bringing drama before the playoffs start.
