Coming off Game 2, the Heat must have been feeling good. They had withstood a Nikola Jokic 40-point masterclass, comeback from a double-digit deficit, and won the game. Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra had figured something out in the 2nd half. Bam Adebayo as the initiator of the offense on the perimeter, which opened up the entire Miami offense in the 2nd half, gave easy opportunities to Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson, as well as easy shot opportunities for Adebayo. Having Adebayo as the main facilitator meant that Jokic was involved in everything Miami did offensively, and he was reluctant to step up to the ball many times. All of this is broken down in BBALLBREAKDOWN’s brilliant taking apart of Game 2, which you can find here:
However, in my opinion, it was Denver who had to be feeling good after game 2. In game 2, Miami resorted to an aggressive double team of Jamal Murray off the screen by Jokic and played Jokic one on one for most of the game. This worked as Jokic’s teammates never really got going. However, Denver head coach Michael Malone is a master of adjustments and adjust he did. Some of the huge adjustments he made were to play Michael Porter Jr way less, who has not looked ready for this stage, run way more 2 man game with Jokic and Murray, and introduce a lot more cutting action via Christian Braun.
Jokic was extremely comfortable offensively the whole game due to Miami’s defensive game plan to the tune of 30 points, but he was also attacking closeouts to generate wide-open layups for his cutting teammates, such as Braun who finished with 15 points on 7-8 shooting, leading to 10 assists. Murray also earned 10 assists via passes back to Jokic, who was wide-open after the aggressive double team of Murray. It appears that Spoelstra bought the whole “turn Jokic into a scorer to win” mantra and cost his team dearly after Malone went back to review the tape.
All of this brings me to my final point. Unless Tyler Herro makes a surprise return, or Jimmy Butler goes completely nuclear like he did in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, the Heat just don’t have the depth or firepower to go toe-to-toe with Denver. They’ve come this far with undrafted members playing a big role, but players such as Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent were always going to come back to Earth eventually. Denver has held double-digit leads in all 3 games so far and for good reason. Game 2 looks more and more like an outlier because I’m not sure that gameplan will ever work again after Malone and company completely exposed it in game 3.
If it’s one thing we’ve learned throughout these playoffs, it’s to never underestimate or count out the Miami Heat. They are resilient. They are tough and gritty. They will never, ever give up. They will always respond to a punch. Don’t expect the Heat to just lie down and let a superior Denver team run all over them without a fight. And who knows? Erik Spoelstra may pull a rabbit out of his hat and come up with a game plan that changes everything. Jimmy Butler may go back to being what he was in the first 2 rounds, Jimmy Jordan. This series is not over in any sense. I fully expect the Nuggets to show their superiority the rest of the way, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re going to win the series.
Oh, and before you ask. Yes. I still have Miami winning this series in 7 games.
