Let’s face it. There have been too many late-round success stories and too many first-round disappointments in the NFL lately. Of course, C.J. Stroud from last year’s class has cemented himself as a top-flight quarterback. The 2020 NFL Draft coughed out multiple franchise quarterbacks with no busts at all. But nevertheless, I think that the way the NFL scouts quarterbacks is just wrong.
Everyone looks for height, weight, speed, and all the physical intangibles. The 49ers traded 3 first-round picks to pick a player who played 19 games in college. The Jets drafted a player who had ONE season of production at number 2 overall. The 2 best quarterbacks from last year’s draft, Sam Howell and Brock Purdy, were taken in the 5th round and 7th round respectively. MVP frontrunner Dak Prescott was taken in the 4th round before lighting the league on fire in his rookie year.
So what is it that NFL teams look for that is just weird? Why would you decide to take Daniel Jones over Gardner Minshew? Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, or Josh Rosen in the top 10? Jared Goff or Carson Wentz over Prescott? Kenny Pickett over Howell or Purdy? How does a guy like Jake Browning go undrafted and take 4 years to start a game? What is more important – the fundamentals of football and the mental aspect of the game or outwardly physical traits and developable tools?
Sam Howell was a 3-year (37 games) college stater for UNC and held a 92/23 TD/INT ratio. He went in the 5th round.
Dak Prescott was also a 4-year (51 games) starter for Mississippi State. He finished his college career with a 70/23 TD/INT ratio. He went in the 4th round.
Jake Browning was also a 4-year starter (53 games) at Washington. He finished his college career with a 95/34 TD/INT ratio. He went undrafted.
Gardner Minshew, another 3-year (30 games) college stater at East Carolina and Washington State. He finished his college career with a 62/20 TD/INT ratio.
Brock Purdy was a 4-year starter (48 games) at Iowa State. He finished his college career with an 81/33 TD/INT ratio.
In contrast, let’s look at some of the bigger busts in recent memory.
Sam Darnold was a 2-year starter (27 games) at USC. He finished his college career with a 57/22 TD/INT ratio.
Josh Rosen was a 3-year starter (30 games)at UCLA. He finished his college career with a 59/26 TD/INT ratio.
Trey Lance was really just a 1-year starter (19 games) at NDSU. He finished his college career with a completely absurd 30/1 TD/INT ratio.
Zach Wilson was a 3-year stater at BYU, however, combined for 23 TDs and 12 INTs in his first 2 seasons before tossing 33 TDs to just 3 INTs in his 3rd season.
What Should We Be Looking For?
A quarterback who’s naturally gifted with many physical gifts is great. They really are. But the problem with the NFL today is that teams think that’s the only thing they should be looking for in a signal-caller. However, I believe that the fundamentals and processing are much more important traits than “I can throw the ball 70 yards”. Every once in a while, we get complete packages like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Stroud. But more often than that, teams are looking for the wrong things. Scouting is broken.
I will say this with my full chest: You are MUCH more likely to find a Dak Prescott or a Brock Purdy than you are to find a Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. Just look at Jake Browning. Signed off the street. An undrafted free agent. Players like Mahomes or Allen are generational players. And if every team who needs a quarterback chases after generational rather than just good, there will be an ever-increasing list of teams in the National Football League with no quarterback.
