The 2023 NFL Draft is only 15 days away and we have a bunch more information now that the NFL Scouting Combine along with individual pro days are over with. Now that we move into the team meeting phase of the draft process, we have a better understanding of how the Draft will shake out.
With that being said, lets jump right into Mock 3.0!
Trade Breakdowns (3 trades):
IND (4) –> ARZ (3) : The Colts are taking no chances. Indianapolis sees an opportunity to ensure they grab their quarterback of the future and don’t want to get jumped by another QB-needy team.
PHI (10) –> TB (19): The post Tom Brady era will prove challenging for the Buccaneers and they need a guy that will step in and lead in Tampa Bay as soon as possible. As for Philadelphia, they can afford dropping back and grabbing another pick in either this year’s draft or a pick in 2024.
LAC (22) –> NYG (26): The Giants aim to trade up to jump some other needy teams to grab a scheme fit player and the Chargers afford to drop back and pick up some extra compensation.
Pick 1 – CAR – CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Pick Breakdown – I’ve seen this pick getting over-thought a bunch recently. Personally, its either Stroud or Young here. At that point it comes down to who fits the team better — CJ Stroud of the Ohio State University.
Pick 2 – HOU – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Pick Breakdown – The Texans had their chance to have the number one pick but gave it away in their final regular season game. In this mock, it doesn’t seem to matter because Alabama’s Bryce Young slips right into their lap for a new era in Houston.
Pick 3 – IND (Mock trade w/Arizona) – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Pick Breakdown – The word “polarizing” has been the main word used to describe Richardson in this draft process. I think there is a ton to like on film; But with that, there’s also a bunch not to like. Errant throws and misreads tend to litter his film though you will see the beautiful deep balls and electric runs sprinkled throughout as well.
Anthony Richardson: Super super athletic. Makes a ton of plays with his arm and his legs.
— Lincoln Heimbach (@LincHeimbachTSP) February 3, 2023
Makes a few “What are you looking at” kind of throws, but some “#1 pick” throws as well.
If he shows that he can fit the ball in a tight window, top-10 is not a stretch.
6’4 230 lbs pic.twitter.com/dcGGlYX0bC
Pick 4 – ARI (Mock trade w/Indianapolis) – Will Anderson, LB, Alabama
Pick Breakdown – Very easy choice here for the Cardinals in my opinion. The best player in the draft falls to them at pick #3 and they’re able to rebuild their defensive line after the loss of Chandler Jones last offseason, along with JJ Watt and Zach Allen this past offseason.
Pick 5 – SEA – Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Pick Breakdown – Carter has had some legal issues during the pre-draft process along with some questions about his work ethic. These things won’t take away from some of the best defensive film of anyone in this class. He’s a great athlete, but what will the risk be come draft night?
Pick 6 – DET – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Pick Breakdown – This was one of my favorite picks to make. I think Witherspoon is the perfect Dan Campbell style player. Physical, confident, smart, fundamentally sound; There’s a lot to like at this pick for the Lions.
Unloading Jeff Okudah to the Atlanta Falcons is another primer to this pick. Look for Detroit to eye the secondary in the draft.
Pick 7 – LV – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Pick Breakdown – Gonzalez is CB1 to many and for good reason. He showed out at the combine and cemented his place at least within the top-three cornerbacks in the draft. It’s hard to see him fall much further than this spot. Raiders bolster a secondary that could use the help.
Pick 8 – ATL – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
Pick Breakdown – Tyree Wilson is an athletic freak show. His wingspan is ridiculously long and makes getting around the edge very easy. This pick would fill a major hole in this Falcons’ defense.
Pick 9 – CHI – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Pick Breakdown – The Bears are in dire need to lock down their offensive line. General Manager Ryan Poles was able to string together a very successful off-season and an o-lineman here with the ninth pick would only further that success.
Pick 10 – TB (Mock trade w/ PHI) – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Pick Breakdown – The prediction here is that Tampa Bay jumps Tennessee in order to select Will Levis out of Kentucky at Philadelphia’s’ tenth pick. The post-Brady NFL will feel a lot different, and the Bucs will obviously be hit the hardest. Levis has been called the “mayor” of Kentucky and the Buccaneers would want no different.
Pick 11 – TEN – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
Pick Breakdown – The Titans have been looking for an upgrade up front. Paris Johnson may be the best pure tackle in the class. Pass Protection, run strength, second level agility: all up there with the best.
Pick 12 – HOU – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Pick Breakdown – This pick would be a perfect pairing for any quarterback that the Texans take with their first pick (if they do end up taking one). Smith-Njigba missed out on the entire 2022 College Football season due to injury, but was able to show out at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, proving that he is still a top receiver in this class.
Pick 13 – NYJ – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Pick Breakdown – New York needs to lock down their offensive line. It seems as if year after year they have hiccups and holes in their front five. Wright is a bit of a surprise with Peter Skoronski still on the board, but he’ll surely protect who ever is taking the snaps in 2023.
Watched a bit of film on @Vol_Football RT, Darnell Wright vs Alabama.
— Lincoln Heimbach (@LincHeimbachTSP) January 21, 2023
Super effective pass blocker. Protects better vs finesse moves than power moves. Not as effective in the run game, but good footwork and timing on pulls — most were log technique.
829 snaps: 0 sacks allowed pic.twitter.com/lKRIKBDb8i
Pick 14 – NE – Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
Pick Breakdown – Head coach Bill Belichick has been known to make some rather interesting decisions in the first round in recent years. This pick, however, would have few complaints. Van Ness is uber strong and some coaches and teammates at Iowa call him Hercules. He fits very well in the Pats’ defense and will receive very good mentorship from veteran pass rusher, Matt Judon.
Pick 15 – GB – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Pick Breakdown – Smith had an absolutely ridiculous Scouting Combine in March and boosted his draft stock from a potential first round pick, to a top-ten hopeful. There are a few teams in this top-15 that could jump on grabbing one of the most athletic pass rushers in the class, but I think Green Bay will make for fittable suitors.
Pick 16 – WAS – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Pick Breakdown – To this point, Porter Jr. is the best defensive back on the board and I would be surprised if he made it past the Commanders. In need of some help in the secondary, Washington should be very happy that Porter fell to them.
Pick 17 – PIT – Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Pick Breakdown – Pittsburgh’s offensive line was a mystery in 2022. Injuries plaguing what a starting offensive line should have looked like for the Steelers. Skoronski will give a ton of help to this line, whether it be on the interior or on a bookend.
Pick 18 – DET – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Pick Breakdown – Robinson seems to be the biggest question in the draft to this point. Teams haven’t found much first-round value in the running back position in recent years, but Robinson is set to change that. The Lions let Jamal Williams walk in free Agency and D’Andre Swift doesn’t seem to be the answer. Bijan would give a new kind of offensive look to the Detroit team that is on the upward trend.
Pick 19 – PHI (Mock trade w/ TB) – Calijah Kancey, DL, Pitt
Pick Breakdown – Kancey has been mocked to the Eagles at pick #10 many times, but because Philadelphia trades back in this mock, he falls right back to them at pick #19. GM Howie Roseman doesn’t break the offensive/defensive lineman trend in the first round in this draft. Kancey is a freak and has been compared to fellow former Pitt d-lineman, Aaron Donald.
Pick 20 – SEA – Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
Pick Breakdown – Bresee made some waves at the NFL Scouting Combine as well. After his injury that set him out for much of the 2022 CFB season, he has finally cemented himself as a round one pick in my eyes. For the Seahawks, I was thinking about mocking Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker here as well. Hooker has been on the rise recently, but after his ACL injury, it’s hard to see him go much higher than the second round at this point.
And yes, I know this the second defensive tackle that the Seahawks take; But with the defense that Seattle runs, I think this would make for a very strong duo.
don’t overthink it. bryan bresee is what it looks like. pic.twitter.com/Jr6C0bmktO
— Kyron Samuels (@kyronsamuels) April 6, 2023
Pick 21 – MIA – Forfeited
Pick 22 – NYG (Mock Trade w/LAC) – Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
Pick Breakdown – Forbes is a bit small in my eyes. He is 6’1 and weighed in at 166 lbs at the NFL Scouting Combine, but with that, ran a 4.35 40-yard dash. He is a very lanky corner with impressive ball skills. I think he fits the Giants scheme well and will join a young and growing secondary in New York.
Pick 23 – BAL – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
Pick Breakdown – With the Lamar Jackson situation still floating overhead, and the recent Odell Beckham Jr. signing, the Ravens have to stay focused come draft time. To grab Murphy here at pick #23 is a massive win for the Ravens as a pass rusher is a big need for the team. Murphy is one of the best in the class and to have him fall this far would be huge for Baltimore.
Pick 24 – MIN – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
Pick Breakdown – The Vikings released wide receiver Adam Thielen who signed with the Carolina Panthers. Now, the Vikes are in need of an explosive route runner to catch passes opposite Justin Jefferson. Zay Flowers fits that archetype.
Pick 25 – JAX – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Pick Breakdown – Deonte Banks is my CB3. I think he has some of the best technique in the class and is very very active in support of any kind. He struggles a bit in zone coverage but is probably the stickiest corner when it comes to man coverage.
@TerpsFootball CB Deonte Banks vs. #Michigan:
— Lincoln Heimbach (@LincHeimbachTSP) March 5, 2023
Sticky and fundamental. Good eyes, hands, feet, and hips in press man.
Seemed to struggle with short routes when dropped in a zone look.
Good:
– Press
– Motor
– Boundary technique
Bad:
– Zone
– INT’s
– Awareness in recovery pic.twitter.com/t296gBJXqb
Pick 26 – LAC (Mock Trade w/NYG) – Jordan Addison, WR, USC
Pick Breakdown – Addison is a very strong route runner — maybe the best in the draft. While he is not as explosive as Zay Flowers, who was selected a few picks prior, he does have some very impressive film that is deserving of a first round pick.
Pick 27 – DAL – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Pick Breakdown – This is the first tight end off the board. Most experts I’ve seen have had two, or three, or four tight ends in round one, but I’m only going to go with the best two for this mock. While this is the deepest this position’s class has been in years, I don’t see the same value in first round tight ends as others.
Pick 28 – BUF – O’Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
Pick Breakdown – Buffalo is another team that needs some assistance on the offensive line. Torrence was a monster for Florida and will continue to maul up front for the Bills. Really strong in the run game and fundamentally sound in his pass-pro.
Pick 29 – CIN – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Pick Breakdown – After signing injury prone Irv Smith Sr, the Bengals will look for a long term option in the draft. And this draft is as good as any to do it. The position is the deepest it’s been in years and Kincaid is the best according to some.
Pick 30 – NO – Adetomiwa Adebawore, EDGE, Northwestern
Pick Breakdown – Ah-Day-Tommy-wah Ah-day-Bar-woh-Reh. A very impressive offseason for him has led to a very possible first round selection for the Northwestern standout. Adebawore is a very lanky defender who creates for himself. Good dip on pass rush and ranges across the line in run support.
Pick 31 – PHI – John Michael-Schmitz, OL, Minnesota
Pick Breakdown – With Jason Kelce likely in his last year as an Eagle, they will need some help on the interior offensive line. Philadelphia may need Michael-Schmitz to move to guard because of Isaac Seumalo leaving in Free Agency.
Pick 32 – KC – Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
Pick Breakdown – The Super Bowl winners do still have some needs to fill, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Keion White would serve as their defensive end opposite George Karlaftis creating a very edge rush corps for Kansas City.
