MLB Award Predictions

With less than a month left in the regular season, the beautiful sport of baseball has sifted through the deserving recipients, revealing the frauds and highlighting the dogs. The award races have bottlenecked into a handful of candidates. 

The Baseball Writer’s Association of America (BBWAA) presents eight awards to those who top the MLB: the MVP, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and Manager of the Year. The American and National Leagues will award four of their best representatives. 

In my humble opinion, these are the ones who are going to take home the honors in early November. 

AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels. 

I bet you couldn’t have predicted that. Ohtani was on pace for one of the most incredible seasons in history. Shohei is tied for the league lead in home runs with 44 while starting 23 games and boasting a 144 ERA+. For the first five months of the season, ‘The Unicorn’ was doing things the MLB hadn’t seen since the first eight seasons of Babe Ruth’s career. 

Ohtani became the eighth player in AL/NL history to hit 40 home runs and steal 20 bases twice in his career. At the same time, he tallied 167 strikeouts and 4.0 Wins Above Replacement. Mookie Betts and Barry Bonds are the only players to achieve 10 rWAR this century, and Baseball-Reference has Ohtani just .1 WAR from achieving this historic feat. 

I could go on and on about random stats proving Ohtani is arguably the best player in MLB history, but he will have to wait to become the 12th player in MLB history to win the Cy Young and MVP in the same season. It was announced Ohtani won’t pitch again in late August after he tore his UCL. This injury was heartbreaking news for fans across baseball, but more importantly for Ohtani, as the torn UCL will likely cost him over $100 million this offseason. 

It doesn’t matter to Shohei, though. He hasn’t missed a game since it was announced he tore his UCL. In that period, he has a 1.012 OPS and walks 30% of the time. Ohtani is easily the most revered player in the MLB and will win his second MVP before getting the biggest contract in MLB history. 

NL MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr. Atlanta Braves

The NL MVP race has tightened immensely since the All-Star break, becoming an actual debate between MLB fans. Mookie Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ incredible August has proved the MVP race is far from over. Betts is batting .439 since August 1st with 11 home runs and a seemingly impossible 239 wRC+. 

Acuña and Betts are the top two position players in WAR and are neck and neck in practically every other category. Both rank in the top five in OBP, SLG, wOBA, xwOBA, and wRC+. 

The difference maker is what Acuña does on the basepaths. He made history by becoming the only player ever to record 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases in a single season, and he did it in grand fashion. Traveling to LA for a potential NLCS preview with 29 home runs, Acuña took the recent shift in MVP odds personally. He came up with the bases loaded early in the first game and created his own club in MLB glory. Looking at Baseball Savant gives a better understanding of why he is so astonishing. 

AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees. 

In a historically bad season for the Yankees, the one bright spot has been the best pitcher in the American League. 

The fireballer has the most rWAR among pitchers by a long shot. His 5.4 leads by almost an entire point, as Sonny Gray, who has the second most, sits at 4.7 WAR. His 2.95 ERA is only .03 points away from leading the American League. 

Most importantly for the struggling Yankees, Cole has been an absolute workhorse. His 28 starts, 173 innings pitched, and 693 batters faced all lead the American League. 

His fastball is one of the best in the league. He ranks in the 99th percentile in pitching run value and fastball run value, using the burn ball 54% of the time. 

NL Cy Young: Blake Snell, San Diego Padres

The Cy Young race in the National League is significantly more intense than the American League. 

Snell is joined by Spencer Strider of the Braves and Justin Steele of the Cubs in pursuit of the honor. Snell has a comfortable lead in ERA (2.50), while Strider has an outstanding strikeout lead (245). 

Although Strider is averaging nearly 14 strikeouts per game, he has a 3.56 ERA, and if he doesn’t have his best stuff on the day in question, he tends to get lit up. His 3.4 rWAR is an entire point lower than Snell’s 4.4 rWAR. 

Snell has been the only constant on the confusingly mediocre Padres. Their star-studded lineup gives the impression this team is one of the best in the league, but their 65-73 record tells a different story. 

When Snell is on the bump for the Padres, they have a much higher win percentage. Since May, Snell has started 23 games, and the Padres have only lost nine. He leads the league in hits per nine and is gearing up for a big offseason, which could make him the highest-paid pitcher. 

AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles. 

Baltimore fans have been waiting for this moment for six years. Over a half-decade of suffering is coming to a close for Orioles fans. Henderson has played in 125 games as a rookie and has been electric. 

He has 22 home runs and 4.7 rWAR with 120 OPS+ while leading the Birds to take the AL East lead from the Rays on July 20th and not giving it up. 

The young shortstop had a chance to hit for the cycle, needing only a single to complete the feat. In his last at-bat of the game, he ripped the ball into the right field corner, and instead of ‘falling on first’ as his teammates would have, he stretched it into a double to get into scoring position. 

The Orioles have a special player, and many more are still in the minor leagues. Baltimore may run the Rookie of the Year conversation for years to come. 

NL Rookie of the Year: Kodai Senga, New York Mets

Calling Kodai Senga a rookie feels counterintuitive. The 30-year-old played 11 seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball League before signing with the Mets in the offseason. Senga is having arguably the best season of his professional career. 

He has 176 strikeouts over 143.1 innings and has racked up 3.7 rWAR. The Met made the All-Star team in his first season and is averaging 11.1 strikeouts per game. 

He has ridden his infamous Ghost Fork,’ making it one of the best pitches in baseball. His forkball was one of the main factors in landing his $15 million contract. The pitch has lived up to the hype, as it has puzzled hitters all season. The forkball has an xBA of 0.98, and 96 of his 176 strikeouts have come on the pitch. 

AL Manager of the Year: Brandon Hyde, Baltimore Orioles. 

Brandon Hyde is in his fourth year of managing the Orioles. He fought through two 100+ loss seasons before turning the team into one of the most fun teams in the league. 

The Orioles had their first winning season since 2016 last season, getting a taste of what the ‘Baby Birds’ can do before emerging this season. 

Much of the excitement of the Orioles comes from the evident team culture they have created. The Orioles show their personality with matching pregame outfits and the sprinkler celebration. A real championship team needs chemistry and character, and Hyde has let the Orioles be the team they want to be. Allowing their creativity to shine has translated into outstanding play on the field. 

The Orioles are the best team in the American League and have the best farm system in baseball. They could become a real dynasty if the front office keeps all of them in Baltimore. 

NL Manager of the Year: Skip Schumaker, Miami Marlins

The Marlins have been in a pit since the ‘Derek Jeter Massacre’ when he traded all their homegrown talent and stepped away from front-office life. 

But Jeter’s replacement, Kim Ng, was the first female General Manager in baseball. To go along with immaculate grid legend and first-year manager Skip Schumaker, they have built the Marlins back into a competitive team for the first time since 2003. 

The team features several Dominican, Cuban, and Venezuelan players to match the vibe and culture of Miami. Players like the potential NL batting champ Luis Arraez, 

Jorge Soler, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Sandy Alcantara, Johnny Cueto, and Jesús Luzardo have created that desired team culture. 

The Marlins haven’t had a winning season since 2008, except for the 60-game COVID season in 2020. Now they are three games above .500 and battling for a Wild Card spot.