The AFC West is competitive. So much so that in seven of the last ten NFL seasons, a team from the AFC West has made it to the AFC Championship. What does that say about the division? A lot.
Everyone knows about Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, but what about Justin Herbert and the young, yet ever-so talented Los Angeles Chargers?
How about Sean Payton and the revamped Denver Broncos?
Don’t sleep on the Las Vegas Raiders, either. Jimmy Garoppolo? He’s a proven winner — and he’s ready to show it this season with a new team.
Here we will take a deeper dive into what the upcoming season is going to look like in the ultra-competitive division. Who is going to win the division? Who will exceed expectations? Who won’t live up to the hype?
Denver Broncos
2022 Record: 5-12 (4th Place)
2023 Prediction: 9-8 (3rd Place)
In the off-season leading up to the 2022 NFL season, the Denver Broncos made what appeared to be a franchise-altering trade, acquiring Seahawks star quarterback Russell Wilson in exchange for a package of draft picks and players.
At first glance, it seemed like they had finally found their quarterback. However, Wilson’s performance in his first 15 games with Denver was mixed. He threw for 3,524 yards and 16 passing touchdowns, which was decent, but he also threw 11 interceptions. Unfortunately, the Broncos struggled as a team, finishing with a disappointing 5-12 record and falling to the bottom of the AFC West.
The 2022 season was plagued with difficulties for the Broncos. Tensions between head coach Nathaniel Hackett and the team ran high, and injuries impacted the talented roster. It seemed as though everything that could go wrong did.
Recognizing the need for change, the Broncos wasted no time revamping their organization. Hackett was fired following the team’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Christmas Day, and Denver immediately began their search for a new head coach.
The coaching search proved to be challenging and uncertain. At one point, it appeared the Broncos were leaning towards hiring 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans. However, Ryans ultimately landed with the Texans, prompting Denver to shift its focus to retired Saints head coach Sean Payton. There was one major obstacle, though—New Orleans still held Payton’s rights, and if the Broncos wanted to hire him, they had to negotiate a trade with the Saints.
On January 31, the Saints agreed to trade Payton and a 2024 third-round pick to the Broncos in exchange for Denver’s 2023 first-round pick (Pick 29: Bryan Bresee) and a 2024 second-round pick. Denver secured their new coach, while New Orleans received valuable draft compensation for their esteemed coach.
In free agency, the Broncos didn’t make any game-changing moves. They signed former Cardinals EDGE rusher Zach Allen to a three-year, $47.8 million contract and added backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham on a two-year, $10 million deal. However, they did lose offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey to the 49ers and EDGE rusher Dre’Mont Jones to the Seahawks.
During the draft, Denver traded up five spots to select Oklahoma wide receiver Marvin Mims. They also added Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders and Iowa cornerback Riley Moss.
As the new season approaches, there are reasons for optimism. Russell Wilson will have time to acclimate to Sean Payton’s offense, star running back Javonte Williams is recovering from a torn ACL, and the defense, particularly the secondary, is expected to take significant leaps.
While I anticipate the Broncos will fare better than the previous season, I don’t believe they have enough to contend for the AFC West title. A 9-8 record should be considered a success given the significant changes and retooling the team has undergone.
Kansas City Chiefs
2022 Record: 14-3 (1st Place)
2023 Prediction: 14-3 (1st Place)
Surpassing the achievements of a 14-3 season, especially one that ends in a Super Bowl victory, is a challenge. The only realistic way you can follow it up is to replicate that success.
Consistent success has become a tradition for the Chiefs. Year after year, they dominate the AFC West, earn a spot in the AFC Championship, and consistently compete at the highest level. The last five seasons have all witnessed the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.
During the offseason, Kansas City was quite active in free agency. Although they lost offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to the Cincinnati Bengals, they swiftly secured the services of former Jaguars offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, who signed a four-year contract worth $80 million.
Wide receivers Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman departed from Kansas City, with Smith-Schuster joining the Patriots and Hardman heading to the Jets.
In the first round of the 2023 NFL draft, the Chiefs bolstered their roster with the selection of EDGE rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah, effectively replacing the released Frank Clark.
Another noteworthy addition to the team is Rashee Rice, a talented wide receiver from SMU, who was drafted to fill the void left by Schuster and Hardman. He is expected to play a significant role in the Chiefs’ offense alongside Kadarius Toney, whom the Chiefs acquired during last season’s trade deadline.
On the defensive side of the ball, Kansas City made valuable acquisitions in EDGE rusher Charles Omenihu and safety Mike Edwards through free agency. These signings hold great potential for the Chiefs as they continue to build upon their success.
Considering the immense challenge of surpassing last season’s achievements, it is reasonable to expect the Chiefs to maintain a strong performance in 2023. With a predicted 13-4 record, they are poised for another deep playoff run, staying true to their characteristic competitiveness.
Las Vegas Raiders
2022 Record: 6-11 (3rd Place)
2023 Prediction: 6-11 (4th Place)
The Las Vegas Raiders entered the 2022 NFL season with lofty expectations, generating significant buzz after making notable moves during the offseason.
In free agency, they secured the services of Chandler Jones, a highly sought-after EDGE rusher from the Cardinals, signing him to a three-year contract. Additionally, the Raiders orchestrated a trade to acquire superstar wide receiver Davante Adams, sending their first and second-round picks in 2022 to the Green Bay Packers. The envisioned pairing of Adams with standout quarterback Derek Carr seemed destined for success.
However, the 2022 season proved to be highly disappointing for Las Vegas. A 5-12 record and a fourth-place finish in the AFC West fell well short of expectations.
Following the season, it appeared that Carr and the Raiders were on the verge of parting ways. Despite weeks of trade discussions, Las Vegas couldn’t find a suitable deal so they ultimately released Carr, concluding the Derek Carr chapter in Raiders history.
At the onset of free agency, the Raiders wasted no time in addressing the void left by Carr. They signed Jimmy Garoppolo, the former quarterback of the 49ers, to a substantial three-year contract worth $72.8 million.
Although they traded star tight end Darren Waller to the New York Giants, the Raiders bolstered their receiving corps by adding Jakobi Meyers in free agency. Meyers signed a three-year contract worth $33 million.
In the 2023 NFL Draft, the Raiders utilized their seventh overall pick to select EDGE rusher Tyree Wilson. Additionally, they secured Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer in the second round, potentially serving as Waller’s replacement.
Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell was chosen in the fourth round by the Raiders. It is anticipated that O’Connell will serve as a backup option to Garoppolo while he develops into the quarterback the Raiders envision.
Acknowledging the challenges ahead, the Raiders organization recognizes that they are not yet ready to compete for a Super Bowl. It is likely that they will experience another mediocre season, ending up with a 6-11 record and positioning them for a top-ten pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, where they can select a quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers
2022 Record: 10-7 (2nd Place)
2023 Prediction: 12-5 (2nd Place)
The Los Angeles Chargers experienced a highly disappointing end to their previous NFL season. During the Wild Card round against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Chargers had a commanding 27-7 lead in the first half. However, they ultimately lost the game 31-30, managing to score only three points in the second half.
After this significant playoff collapse, there were calls for head coach Brandon Staley to be fired. However, the Chargers chose a different approach and instead dismissed offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi from his position.
To fill the vacancy, the Chargers hired former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Moore’s departure from the Cowboys was unexpected, and he quickly found a new role with the Chargers following his departure from Dallas.
A major storyline in the Chargers’ offseason was the potential contract extension for their star quarterback, Justin Herbert. At 25 years old, Herbert is currently under contract through the 2024 season.
Herbert’s extension is expected to surpass $50 million per season, considering the substantial deals recently signed by quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. Spotrac suggests a potential extension for Herbert: a 6-year, $304.93 million contract, averaging an annual value of $50.8 million.
During the first day of free agency, news emerged that superstar running back Austin Ekeler had been given permission by the Chargers to explore a trade. However, this seemed to be more of a formality as the two parties were engaged in contract negotiations. A resolution was eventually reached over two months later, with Los Angeles adding nearly $2 million in incentives to Ekeler’s deal.
In terms of free agency signings, the Chargers made only one notable move by adding former Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks on a two-year, $13.3 million contract.
During the 2023 NFL Draft’s first round, the Chargers focused on bolstering their offense by selecting TCU receiver Quentin Johnston. Pairing Johnston with star wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will pose a significant threat to opposing defenses in the coming years.
Additionally, the Chargers drafted two more players from TCU: quarterback Max Duggan (7th round) and wide receiver Derius Davis (4th round). Duggan will serve as the Chargers’ backup quarterback, while Davis will have the opportunity to compete for playing time.
Although the Chargers dropped games last season that they were expected to win, I anticipate a strong performance from this explosive and talented team, with a projected record of 12-5. While they may fall short of winning the AFC West, this record should secure them a Wild Card spot.
