The 2023 AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray has found his new home in St Louis after agreeing to a three-year $75 million contract with the Cardinals on Monday morning.
After an incredibly disappointing 2023 season, the St Louis Cardinals have already made strides to rewrite the script for 2024.
Fans were severely let down after coming into the season projected to win their division. They finished the first month of the season 10-19 with an immense amount of internal drama surrounding the team. That translated onto the field. St. Louis finished the season with a pitching staff that ranked bottom 6 in ERA and top 2 in HR%. By July, they knew the season was on its last legs and decided to start building for next year. They traded their ace Jordan Montgomery to the eventual World Series Champions, the Texas Rangers. Montgomery gave the Cardinals 121 innings with a 127 ERA+ before getting shipped to Arlington. St. Louis didn’t stop there, continuing their disassembly of their starting rotation by sending Jack Flaherty to the Baltimore Orioles. Flaherty was drafted by the Cardinals and pitched six seasons in Red before getting shopped for a handful of prospects.
St. Louis didn’t care about the slow start to the free agency market. So far, the Cardinals are the only team to make any real adjustments to their team. Veterans is the name of the game for the Cardinals so far.
First, they brought back the 36-year-old Lance Lynn, giving him a one-year $10 million deal. Lynn was drafted by the Cardinals in 2008 and pitched 5 ½ seasons for the Red Birds before bouncing around. He went from the Yankees to the Twins, the Rangers to the White Sox, and finally landed on the Dodgers at the end of the 2023 season. Lynn has had a steady career as a starter, making two All-Star rosters and finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting three consecutive years from 19 to 21. Recently, his age has started to catch up with the slow-throwing righty, and last year, he had a season to forget. He finished in the last percentile for pitching run value and fastball value, almost achieving the trifecta, finishing in the fourth percentile for breaking ball value.
Lynn gave up 44 home runs in the 2023 season. If that sounds like a lot, it’s because it is. Lynn gave up the 5th most home runs in MLB history, which came to a pinnacle in the NLDS against the Diamondbacks. With their backs against the wall, the Dodgers turned to their midseason rental with their season on the line. Lynn looked solid through the first two, but it all came crashing down in the third. The Diamondbacks became the first team in postseason history to hit four home runs in a single inning, all but wrapping up the Dodgers season and almost knocking Lynn out of the league in one inning. Lynn gets a second chance on the Cardinals, but it could be his last shot at a starting gig on an MLB roster.
Less than 24 hours later, St. Louis locked up another solid pitching piece. They nabbed 36-year-old starter Kyle Gibson. They got Gibson on a one-year $12 million deal with an option for 2025. The 36-year-old finished the season with a 4.73 ERA and led the American League in hits allowed. It wasn’t all bad for Gibson in ‘23, though. He led the AL in games started with 33, putting up nearly 200 innings. The workhorse will be exactly what the Cardinals need—someone who can take the ball every fifth day and eat innings like a malnourished lion.
Gray knows a thing or two about joining the team as an ace. It’s something he has a background in. Gray led the Oakland A’s pitching rotation when he came into the league in the early 2010s. After getting traded to the Yankees in 2017, he did the same thing, then got even more experience with the Reds after getting sold in 2019. He became an expert after being dealt to the Twins in ‘22 for the third time. Gray joined his third All-Star roster in ‘23 and finished top-3 in Cy Young voting for the second time in his career.
Gray has silently been one of the best starters in the league for the better part of a decade. When he is on, he has some of the most untouchable stuff in the entire league.
Since becoming a full-time starter in 2014, Gray hasn’t dipped under 100 IP except the shortened 2020 season. Gray had an incredible 2023 performance. He finished in the 99th percentile in Pitching run value and breaking ball value while finishing in the 96th percentile for Fastball run value. Gray’s importance lies in his refusal to give up runs. He finished the season third in ERA with a 2.79 behind the two Cy Young winners. He pitched 184 innings in 2023 and only allowed eight home runs for a mindboggling, league-leading 0.39 HR/9. He led the league in FIP with a 2.83 and it all came together to result in a 5.3 WAR season. Now in his 11th season, he joins his 5th team in pursuit of a ring.
The Cardinals have done 80% of the work to revamp their Bullpen completely. The new pitchers bring the average age of their starting rotation to 35 years old. It feels as if they still need one more big piece to push them over the edge. To be the team they want to be, at least two excellent starters are required, and the Cardinals seemingly still need that second pitcher to fall back on. This free agency class is perfectly suited for the Cardinals’ needs, and if the offseason ends without another big name in St. Louis, another dark year could lie ahead for fans of the Missori-based team.
