There is a lot of discourse surrounding Brock Purdy. Oh, he’s a “system QB”. If you plug in Zach Wilson or Mac Jones or any bad quarterback the 49ers would still be 5-0. If you take away Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy will turn back into a pumpkin. Purdy would start to look like the 7th Round Pick he is without Shanahan and the 49ers’ myriad of weapons. Hey. Jimmy Garoppolo had the same success in San Francisco for the good part of the last 6 years and is now being exposed in Las Vegas.
The truth is that none of these narratives reflect the reality, which is the fact that Brock Purdy is playing at a high level, and while the 49ers still could be undefeated with another quarterback, Purdy has lifted this 49ers offense to levels that had previously never been seen. The truth is this same 49ers team with Kyle Shanahan and all these weapons, never, and I mean NEVER, looked this dynamic with Garoppolo or Lance as the starter.
The Stats
Box Score statistics are always a good way to evaluate a quarterback’s performance, but they usually don’t show the whole story. Purdy’s are very, very good. If you just peek at Purdy’s season numbers and his ranking in accordance with the rest of the NFL, you would think that this guy is in the race for MVP.
Yes. These are his true statistics on the season. He also is 2nd in the NFL 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and for my “dink-and-dunk” accusers out there, he is tied for a league-best 7.2 air yards per completion. If we were to project this over a full 17-game season, it would come out to about 4,321 yards, and 37 total touchdowns. Now it’s not feasible that he finishes this season without throwing a single interception. He is human.
If he finishes this season with 37 touchdowns and less than 5 interceptions and the 49ers finish as the best team in football, that would match Aaron Rodgers’ 37 touchdown – 4 interception, 13-3 record 2021 MVP campaign. If he were to somehow finish the season without one interception? I don’t think it would be very controversial to say that it would make him an instant shoo-in for the Most Valuable Player award.
Well. The box score stats check out. What about some advanced statistics?
If you’re looking at this chart with a very confused face and asking “what the heck is EPA”, you’re not the only one. I was the same when I first looked at these kinds of stats. Purdy is objectively the most “efficient” quarterback in the NFL. EPA is Expected Points Added and measures the efficiency of a quarterback every time they drop back. It takes into account in-game context, such as down, distance, pressure, and depth of a pass. Essentially the efficiency of everything that either leads to or doesn’t lead to points.
These 2 statistics show that Purdy is also far and away the best passer in the middle of the field and outside the numbers. One of the primary concerns and criticisms of Purdy is his perceived lack of arm strength, but his statistics while throwing outside the numbers seem to disprove those narratives.
Just Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0?
There is a narrative that Garoppolo piloted the offense in the same way as Purdy is doing now and that Purdy is doing nothing special. After all, Garoppolo did have 16 touchdowns to 4 interceptions in 10 games last season and 9 touchdowns to just 1 interception after the arrival of Christian McCaffrey. But let’s dig deeper.
That’s right. Even with McCaffrey, the Garoppolo offense scored 30 points in 3 out of 5 games and had a game with under 20 points in Week 11 (scored 13 points), while the Purdy offense has only failed to score 30 points in 1 out of 11 games where Purdy has started or played the majority of snaps (Miami) and has never actually scored less than 21 points in the regular season.
Also, in the only game that McCaffrey ran for under 3 yards per carry with Garoppolo under center, the 49ers offense only scored 13 points. On Sunday night, McCaffrey averaged just 2.7 yards per attempt. The 49ers offense still scored 42 points, with Purdy tossing 4 touchdowns.
Even if we look past the statistics, Purdy still makes throws that the 49ers offense was missing with Garoppolo under center. I want you to pay attention to his anticipation while throwing the ball, which is something that former veteran NFL Quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan puts extra emphasis on during his Week 5 Breakdown of Purdy on his YouTube channel. On a side note, all of his breakdowns of quarterbacks on his channel are just beautiful to watch and I suggest you subscribe to his channel, The QB School, if you are a fan of the game.
These were his 3 best throws of the day. Just watch them without commentary. These are objectively high-level throws, whether or not he plays under Kyle Shanahan and 3 All-Pros. These are throws that can only be made by a select few quarterbacks in the league.
Look at when he lets the ball go and where the receiver is. Look at where the ball is going, He’s throwing to a spot, so that when his receiver gets there, he can just catch that thing and maximize the run after catch. Pinpoint accuracy and allowing his receivers to get RAC.
That’s why when people say a quarterback is a dink-and-dunk quarterback because his skill position players get a lot of run after catch, it’s just wrong because you as a quarterback have to put your players in positions to make plays with the ball in their hands. If Purdy throws the ball low or behind or somewhere that forces the receiver to make the catch at an uncomfortable position, the receivers don’t get as much RAC.
The Verdict
It is my impression that the primary reason people refuse to acknowledge Purdy as someone who is playing at a high level, is because of his draft position. We cannot just wrap our heads around the fact that this guy was the last pick of the draft making these high level throws. If Purdy were a 1st round pick, I guarantee the entire NFL community would be screaming “THE NEXT GREAT NFL QB” at the top of their lungs.
My other impression is that people think that just because the 49ers were a good football team with Garoppolo (and they were), it means that Purdy’s success is all because of the system and all the weapons. Guess what? The Chiefs finished 1st in the AFC West 2 years before Patrick Mahomes took the reigns. Mahomes is the league’s best quarterback, however the Chiefs were *good* before he arrived and he lifted them to *elite*.
Josh Allen, the 2 seasons combined before Stefon Diggs, threw for 30 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. In 2020, Diggs’ first season in Buffalo, Allen threw for 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Again, I’m not saying that Diggs is the reason for Allen’s success, but the fact is we can’t expect any quarterback, no matter how good, to play at a high level without weapons.
Purdy is playing at a very high level right now. If you are a fan of the sport, just sit back and enjoy the show because it may not last forever. At some point defenses will figure out a way to limit him, as they’ve done for any quarterback.
