After 2,460 games this regular season and 3 rounds in the NBA Playoffs, we are finally here. The 2023 NBA Finals, where the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat will battle it out in what is sure to be a tight series that may even go to 7 games. However, the path both teams got here couldn’t be any different. There are many similarities and differences between these 2 teams, and reasons why both teams can win this series. So let’s go through and see why each team can realistically be victorious, help you decide on who will win, and see our picks here at The Sports Place.
How They Got Here
Denver Nuggets
Denver getting here shouldn’t have been a big surprise. They were dominant behind their dynamic duo of 2-time MVP Nikola Jokic and guard Jamal Murray all season long. Michael Porter Jr also took a big jump this season defensively, while he increased his offensive efficiency, giving Denver a reliable third option. Off-season additions Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gave the team exactly what they needed to get over the hump and make the Finals.
Denver was the number one seed for most of the year, and given their dominance over the Western Conference, it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that they are representing the conference in the NBA Finals. Many throughout the league spent much of their time focusing on LeBron James’ Lakers and Stephen Curry’s defending champion Warriors as teams who would eventually show their “championship experience” to burst through the West and into the NBA Finals. Instead, the West has a new King on its illustrious throne, and it’s a good one for sure.
Denver’s offense during the playoffs has not been anything fancy or intricate, but rather very old school. It revolves around the two-man game between its two-star players, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. These plays have many overwhelmingly positive outcomes. Through the pick-and-roll, Jokic can get easy shots at the rim via Murray’s passing, and Murray can hunt mid-range and 3-point shots.
Through the pick-and-pop, Jokic can get wide-open 3-point or mid-range opportunities, and attack closeouts, while Murray can create mismatches on the perimeter of the defense switches. This action also opens up shots and space for everyone else, including Porter Jr, Caldwell-Pope, Brown, Aaron Gordon, and Jeff Green. During these playoffs, this action has been nearly unstoppable and Denver has romped their way through the West due to it. It will be fun to see how Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra will handle it.
Denver is also here because of the relentless attitude of head coach Michael Malone. Malone is famous for his rants during timeouts…while the Nuggets are blowing out their opponent. He makes sure that his team is giving a 100% at all times, and this will not change during the Finals. Win or lose, one thing is certain — Malone will NEVER let this Nuggets team lose their heart and passion.
Miami Heat
Unlike the Nuggets, I’d be lying if I expected the Heat to be here. They finished as the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, lost their first play-in game to the Hawks, and barely escaped out of their 2nd play-in game against the Bulls. The first two series of the playoffs, Milwaukee and New York, could only be described as the Jimmy Butler show.
Butler looked and played like some long-lost descendant of Michael Jordan to carry Miami to key victories. The Boston series saw a complete team effort, including the emergence of Caleb Martin along with key contributions from Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, and Kyle Lowry.
For most of the NBA season, the Heat were floundering. They were always on the line between play-in and 11th seed. It never felt like they got a solid grasp on the season. Butler didn’t control the team as much, Lowry looked like a tired and degrading 37-year-old, and the undrafted crew of Strus, Vincent, Robinson, and Martin weren’t hitting on all cylinders yet.
It looked as if Miami was just going to wash out of the playoffs if they even made it. They would have to go into the off-season and hit the reset button. Is Butler their guy? Does the undrafted and develop model work? How will the Heat suddenly put it together after sleepwalking through the regular season? As Tony Stark would say, “Sometimes you gotta run before you can walk”.
Miami’s offense is Jimmy Butler. Seriously. I saw Coach Spo’s playsheet and it just says “Jimmy Buckets” on there. In all seriousness, the Heat wouldn’t be here without Butler’s historic playoff run that has singed every team Miami has played so far.
Sure, Adebayo, Vincent, Strus, Martin, Robinson, and Lowry are extremely important to what Miami does, but Butler opens up the entire offense for them by giving them wide-open 3-point shots and vacated lanes to drive into because the defense has been keying into him. When Butler struggled in games 4, 5, and 6 vs the Celtics, Boston nearly made a historic comeback from down 0-3. The Heat will go as far as Jimmy Butler takes them.
We cannot write an article about the Miami Heat without talking about their mastermind head coach. Erik Spoelstra is one of the very best head coaches of all time. His ability to get something out of so many late-round and undrafted players is unprecedented. It’s almost like he walks into his local Planet Fitness, grabs a bunch of dudes who can put a ball in a bucket, and gives them a training camp invite. It’s insanely hilarious and awe-inspiring to think about how he’s made players no one has ever heard of into star role-players.
Gabe Vincent replaced Lowry and has been more effective than him in the starting line-up. Caleb Martin took Kevin Love’s starting minutes and was arguably the best player on the floor in game 7. Max Strus has stepped into Tyler Herro’s starting spot and given the Heat enough at that position. And not to forget Duncan Robinson, who became a key piece for the Heat all the way back in 2020. So yes. Go Erik Spoelstra.
Another thing a Heat article cannot be written about. Their defense. And once again, all props go to Erik Spoelstra. One thing about Coach Spo? He will always empty the clip. He will try man-to-man defense. Doesn’t work? He’s got about 1,417,739 variations of a zone defense. But one thing is for certain. He will make adjustments and he will not stop making adjustments until he finds something that either works or is the best of the bad. And this applies to his offense as well.
Each Team Will Win If…
Nuggets
The Murray and Jokic two-man game is working, if Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr, and Bruce Brown are hitting their open shots, and if the defense, with Aaron Gordon presumably set to be the primary defender, musters just enough to slow Butler down.
Heat
Butler is superhuman for a few more games, the star-role players are doing their jobs to perfection, and Spoelstra is deep in his bag of tricks to slow down Jokic and Murray.
The X-Factors
Denver
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- Michael Porter Jr
- Denver Defense/Aaron Gordon
- Michael Malone
- Bruce Brown
Miami
- Bam Adebayo
- Jimmy Butler
- Erik Spoelstra/Miami Defense
- The Undrafted Core
- Kyle Lowry
TSP’s Official Predictions
Aniruddha Iyengar
Miami Heat in 7 Games.
Jaymin Kanzer
Denver Nuggets in 4 Games.
Greg Graves
Denver Nuggets in 6 Games.
Nate Baker
Denver Nuggets in 5 Games.
Arye Pulli
Denver Nuggets in 6 Games.
